Satellite and NTN tracker

The key takeaways in Q2 2026 are that satellite connectivity is shifting into a major strategic battleground and sovereignty is now a crucial question. A proposed SpaceX IPO at a very high valuation underscores expectations that Starlink will evolve beyond infrastructure into a direct competitor to mobile operators, particularly in mobile and AI-linked connectivity markets. However, the analysis suggests the realistic near-term revenue opportunity is far smaller than the headline figures imply, reinforcing that growth depends on execution of next-generation satellite deployments rather than total market substitution.

As of Q1 2026, Starlink continues to maintain a significant gap in its deployed capacity versus the rest of the field. It has now deployed over 75% of its initial constellation. Meanwhile, Amazon's recent agreement to acquire Globalstar reinforces the trend of consolidation among satellite companies to address scale challenges. For operators, satellite capability is emerging as both a defensive necessity and competitive differentiator, positioning NTNs as a dual lever for ARPU uplift and churn reduction.

Satellite constellation volume ramped up in H2 2025, in preparation for phased commercial launches in 2026. The focus continues to be on direct-to-device (D2D). Starlink has deployed almost 80% of its initial 12,000-strong constellation. Amazon and AST SpaceMobile are among the chasing pack. Both have big aspirations for their constellations but have different motivations.

Q3 2025 saw further trials of direct-to-device (D2D) offerings from telcos, with Rogers in Canada the latest to launch. Examining the trials, it is clear that initial services will focus on SMS and, in some cases, voice. Both are low bandwidth and within the bounds of the spectral capacity available.

The entry of Amazon’s Kuiper represented the biggest competitive development in the satellite space in Q2 2025. This is set against the backdrop of 2025 being a key year for the commercialisation of telco-satellite partnerships.

Direct to cell continues to be the main attraction for operators due to the monetisation opportunities from an extended coverage footprint. IoT is an interesting storyline in 2025 given that the latest standards (Release 19) incorporate new functionality for non-terrestrial network services geared at IoT applications such as sensors, telematics and energy monitoring.

In the last three months, eight more operators moved into the satellite space, taking the total to almost 100. This report tracks data and developments from telcos and satellite companies in pursuit of monetisation in the consumer, B2B and government sectors.

This report tracks data and developments from telcos and satellite companies in pursuit of monetisation in the consumer, B2B and government sectors.

Telco-satellite convergence has become an industry-wide movement rather than the niche strategy it used to be. Perhaps most notable is the momentum behind direct-to-device (often called direct-to-cell) connectivity. This report is the first in a new quarterly series that will track data and developments from telcos and satellite companies in pursuit of monetisation in the consumer, B2B and government sectors.