Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2024

With a 33% rise in international visitors this year, MWC Shanghai speaks to China’s influence and gravitational pull on the regional Asian tech economy and reciprocal demand from buyers to see and be seen on the MWC stage in an already busy event calendar. The analysis here highlights the key takeaways and implications from the meetings, summits and announcements at the event.

The key takeaways in Q2 2026 are that satellite connectivity is shifting into a major strategic battleground and sovereignty is now a crucial question. A proposed SpaceX IPO at a very high valuation underscores expectations that Starlink will evolve beyond infrastructure into a direct competitor to mobile operators, particularly in mobile and AI-linked connectivity markets. However, the analysis suggests the realistic near-term revenue opportunity is far smaller than the headline figures imply, reinforcing that growth depends on execution of next-generation satellite deployments rather than total market substitution.

The SpaceX IPO prospectus frames a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion across AI, connectivity and space-enabled infrastructure. The mobile TAM is listed at $740 billion. Starlink is positioning direct-to-device (D2D) as a global connectivity layer spanning consumer mobility, verticals and eventually coverage in urban areas. This raises broader questions for the telecoms industry around spectrum ownership, infrastructure economics, neutral-host models and regulatory oversight. This Insight Spotlight assesses these questions and grounds the TAM for mobile in reality.