Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2025
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Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2025
Satellite constellation volume ramped up in H2 2025, in preparation for phased commercial launches in 2026. The focus continues to be on direct-to-device (D2D). Starlink has deployed almost 80% of its initial 12,000-strong constellation. This translates to it accounting for around 90% of orbital capacity. Meanwhile, Amazon and AST SpaceMobile are among the chasing pack. Both have big aspirations for their constellations but have different motivations.
Like telecoms, the satellite segment is fundamentally an infrastructure business. It therefore relies on scale for sustained profitability and free cashflow to fund investment. Several mergers and joint ventures tell this story from the last six months.
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Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2025
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Satellite and NTN tracker, Q2 2025
The entry of Amazon’s Kuiper represented the biggest competitive development in the satellite space in Q2 2025. This is set against the backdrop of 2025 being a key year for the commercialisation of telco-satellite partnerships.
Satellite and NTN tracker, Q3 2025
Q3 2025 saw further trials of direct-to-device (D2D) offerings from telcos, with Rogers in Canada the latest to launch. Examining the trials, it is clear that initial services will focus on SMS and, in some cases, voice. Both are low bandwidth and within the bounds of the spectral capacity available.
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Consumers are beginning to adopt services powered by hybrid cellular/satellite connectivity. However, the revenue opportunity for telecoms operators and satellite partners hinges on consumers' willingness to pay.
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