The Limits of D2D

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The Limits of D2D
Modelling the extent of D2D connectivity
Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity has emerged as a notable development in the mobile ecosystem, promising to extend basic mobile services beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. It has the potential to enhance coverage in remote and underserved areas and to provide an additional layer of resilience for emergency communications.
While the technology has clear benefits, is advancing rapidly and is attracting significant attention, its practical role remains constrained by fundamental limitations in capacity and spectral efficiency.
Understanding D2D’s strengths, with realistic expectations, will help define its use cases. To do this, the GSMA has studied the impact of different constellation and spectrum scenarios on D2D’s capabilities. The analysis considers extremely positive scenarios where D2D has, for example, every MHz of mobile spectrum available to it and the maximum planned number of satellites in orbit. While this is an optimistic scenario, it helps illustrate the greatest extent of connectivity that can be offered through D2D.
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The Limits of D2D
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Learn moreRelated research
Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2025
Satellite constellation volume ramped up in H2 2025, in preparation for phased commercial launches in 2026. The focus continues to be on direct-to-device (D2D). Starlink has deployed almost 80% of its initial 12,000-strong constellation. Amazon and AST SpaceMobile are among the chasing pack. Both have big aspirations for their constellations but have different motivations.
Satellite and NTN tracker, Q3 2025
Q3 2025 saw further trials of direct-to-device (D2D) offerings from telcos, with Rogers in Canada the latest to launch. Examining the trials, it is clear that initial services will focus on SMS and, in some cases, voice. Both are low bandwidth and within the bounds of the spectral capacity available.
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The entry of Amazon’s Kuiper represented the biggest competitive development in the satellite space in Q2 2025. This is set against the backdrop of 2025 being a key year for the commercialisation of telco-satellite partnerships.
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