Assessing operator scale in the mobile data era in Latin America

Latin America’s mobile markets are transitioning deeper into the data era, where rising data demand, high investment requirements and declining mobile prices have made operator scale increasingly important. This report examines how market structure, consolidation and entry have affected investment, network quality and consumer outcomes across Latin America since 2010.

The evidence shows that moderate market concentration in Latin America – corresponding to HHI levels between 4,100 and 4,700 – maximises both investment and network quality. Markets with greater scale consistently achieve higher capex per connection, faster download and upload speeds, and wider 4G and 5G coverage, while consumer prices remain stable. Difference‑in‑differences and empirical analysis further confirm that consolidation events in Latin America are associated with clear gains in consumer welfare, driven by higher investment and better service quality, with no evidence of price increases.

These findings strongly suggest that merger assessments in Latin America’s mobile sector should move beyond short‑term price concerns and adopt a balanced evaluation of static and dynamic effects. Consumer welfare depends not only on prices, but also on investment, innovation, quality and long‑term outcomes – areas where well‑designed consolidation in Latin America can deliver clear benefits.