The space economy's first big telecoms test is NTN

Why NTN has Become a Reality

Three forces have moved satellite connectivity from technical niche to strategic infrastructure.

First, private-sector scale has changed expectations. Starlink has shown that low Earth orbit can support a global consumer and enterprise connectivity business. Showing that satellite connectivity is moving from specialist service to infrastructure competition.

Second, direct-to-device is becoming real, even if the economics remain early, satellite is moving toward ordinary mobile devices and operator partnerships. Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar, as part of its Amazon Leo D2D strategy, highlights the growing strategic importance of this market and the competitive pressure created by Starlink.

Third, standards and regulation are moving in the same direction. 3GPP has incorporated NTN into the 5G standards roadmap. Regulators are starting to define how satellite and terrestrial networks can share spectrum and interwork, with the FCC's supplemental coverage from space framework an early example. WRC-27 will also consider possible mobile-satellite allocations for direct connectivity between satellites and IMT user equipment.

Why Telecoms sits Inside the Space Economy

The space economy is often described through rockets, satellites and exploration. That is too narrow. Its value increasingly comes from the services space enables on Earth, including communications, positioning and navigation, Earth observation, logistics, agriculture, climate monitoring, defence and disaster response.

The World Economic Forum and McKinsey estimate that the global space economy could grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035. The important point is what this includes. The "backbone" is the direct space layer including satellites, launchers, ground equipment and space-enabled services such as broadcast television and GPS. The "reach" layer is the value generated in other sectors that depend on space capabilities, such as supply chain and transport, food and beverage, defence, consumer services and digital communications.

That distinction is useful because it shows where telecoms fits. Connectivity is the bridge between assets in orbit and economic activity on the ground. Ships, aircraft, farms, energy assets, emergency teams, remote workers and connected devices only generate value if they stay connected. NTN is not the whole space economy, but it is the part most directly linked to mobile operators' assets, including spectrum, networks, customers, enterprise relationships and regulatory obligations.

Three open questions will shape how this plays out.

1. What coverage layer is D2D actually solving?

The first question is whether D2D is a rural service, an urban service, or both. The answer matters for investment, pricing and expectations.

The strongest view is that D2D is a complement to terrestrial networks, not a substitute. GSMA analysis on the limits of D2D is clear on the economics. Satellite can supplement mobile coverage, but it cannot provide the capacity and spectral efficiency of terrestrial networks. This is especially important in dense urban markets, where mobile usage is concentrated and terrestrial networks can reuse spectrum at much higher capacity.

The opportunity is different. NTN extends the mobile network where terrestrial economics weaken, making possible to connect strategically important locations.

Satellite connectivity can help operators move from a population-coverage mindset to a service-continuity proposition. For consumers, this means emergency messaging, basic connectivity and confidence outside terrestrial coverage. For enterprises, it means IoT, asset tracking, workforce safety and remote monitoring. For governments, it means resilience, crisis response and continuity of critical services.

The integration logic is straightforward. Terrestrial networks provide capacity and quality where people and traffic concentrate. NTN provides reach and resilience where terrestrial deployment is costly, slow or vulnerable. The commercial value is created when the user experiences this as one service, with one device, one subscription, one identity, one support model and, where possible, one quality framework.

2. Who controls the customer and the economics?

The second question is who captures value. The mobile sector should avoid two mistakes. The first is to dismiss satellite as too limited to matter. The second is to assume that partnership alone guarantees value capture.

GSMA Intelligence has tracked 91 telecoms operators with satellite partnerships, representing around 5 billion connections, or about 60% of the global mobile market. This shows momentum. It does not settle the business model.

The strategic issue is control. Who owns the customer offer? Who manages service quality? Who controls the device experience? Who holds the relevant spectrum rights? Who bundles satellite-enabled continuity into enterprise contracts? Who is accountable for emergency communications? Who captures the data and platform economics around mobility, logistics, cloud and critical infrastructure?

Operators do not need to own every satellite to win. In most markets, they should not try. But they do need to decide where they want to sit in the value chain. A resale model may be enough for basic consumer messaging. It is unlikely to be enough for enterprise resilience, critical infrastructure, public safety or future 6G-era network integration.

The central business implication is that NTN partnerships should be negotiated as infrastructure strategy, not as marketing agreements.

3. Is satellite becoming strategic national infrastructure?

The third question is whether countries increasingly treat satellite connectivity as a strategic asset. The evidence points in that direction.

Europe's IRIS2 programme is explicitly framed around secure connectivity, resilience and strategic autonomy. China has made satellite internet part of its broader "new infrastructure" agenda and is developing large LEO constellations, including Guowang and Spacesail, as part of an integrated space-terrestrial network strategy. In the US, Golden Dome is a defence programme rather than a telecoms constellation, but the direction is still relevant where space-based infrastructure is being treated as central to national security architecture, including sensing, communications and command.

This does not mean every country will build a sovereign Starlink. Most will not. Some will procure capacity, require local partnerships, regulate gateways and spectrum access, or prioritise emergency and rural coverage obligations. But the strategic logic is clear, connectivity is now both terrestrial and non-terrestrial, and governments will care about who controls it.

For operators, this creates both opportunity and obligation. Telecoms is already treated as critical national infrastructure. As satellite becomes part of the connectivity mix, operators can strengthen their role in resilience, emergency services, rural coverage and enterprise continuity. But they will also need to engage earlier on spectrum coordination, interoperability, security, roaming and service obligations.

What Operators Should Do Now

Operators need a clearer NTN strategy than "partner and observe".

First, define the role of NTN in the network plan. Is it for emergency messaging, rural coverage, enterprise continuity, IoT, maritime and aviation, public safety, backhaul resilience or all of the above? The answer will differ by market, but it should be explicit. A vague satellite partnership will not create a differentiated offer.

Second, treat spectrum as a strategic asset. D2D services depend on spectrum rights, interference rules and cross-border coordination. Operators should align satellite partnerships with long-term spectrum strategy rather than leaving the issue to satellite providers and regulators.

Third, protect the customer relationship. The strongest proposition will not be "satellite included". It will be continuity, safety and reliability when terrestrial coverage ends. T-Mobile and One NZ show one route with satellite messaging positioned as part of the mobile customer experience. In enterprise markets, the same logic can support managed connectivity for logistics, utilities, energy, maritime and emergency services.

Fourth, build the integration capability. NTN only becomes a mobile-sector opportunity if it is integrated into devices, roaming, billing, network management, emergency services and enterprise platforms. The value is not the satellite link by itself. The value is a service that works across terrestrial and non-terrestrial coverage without the user needing to think about the network boundary.

Key Takeaways

The next space race will still involve rockets, lunar missions and exploration. But for the mobile sector, the more immediate race is much closer to Earth, with companies competing to provide the connectivity layer that makes the space economy commercially useful.

NTN will not remove the need for terrestrial investment. It will make terrestrial networks more valuable by extending their reach and resilience. It will also test whether operators can capture value from the next network layer or whether that value shifts to satellite platforms, device ecosystems and hyperscalers.

Mobile operators already have many of the assets needed to compete, including spectrum, customer relationships, trust, distribution channels and network expertise. The strategic task is to turn those assets into integrated NTN propositions before the market settles around someone else's model.

Space is no longer someone else's network. It is becoming part of the mobile sector's future infrastructure.