The end of Project Loon: money talks

As of Q1 2026, Starlink continues to maintain a significant gap in its deployed capacity versus the rest of the field. It has now deployed over 75% of its initial constellation. Meanwhile, Amazon's recent agreement to acquire Globalstar reinforces the trend of consolidation among satellite companies to address scale challenges. For operators, satellite capability is emerging as both a defensive necessity and competitive differentiator, positioning NTNs as a dual lever for ARPU uplift and churn reduction.

Amazon has agreed to acquire Globalstar in a deal valued at approximately $11.6 billion. It has indicated that it expects the deal to close in 2027, subject to regulatory clearance. This would pave the way for Amazon’s own direct-to-device satellite service launching in 2028. The deal will firmly place Amazon as the main competitor of Starlink in the burgeoning D2D space. But it also has ramifications for other satellite companies and telecoms operators.

Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity has emerged as a notable development in the mobile ecosystem, promising to extend basic mobile services beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. It has the potential to enhance coverage in remote and underserved areas and to provide an additional layer of resilience for emergency communications. While the technology has clear benefits, is advancing rapidly and is attracting significant attention, its practical role remains constrained by fundamental limitations in capacity and spectral efficiency. This report examines the impact of different constellation and spectrum scenarios on D2D’s capabilities.