The end of Project Loon: money talks

The SpaceX IPO prospectus frames a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion across AI, connectivity and space-enabled infrastructure. The mobile TAM is listed at $740 billion. Starlink is positioning direct-to-device (D2D) as a global connectivity layer spanning consumer mobility, verticals and eventually coverage in urban areas. This raises broader questions for the telecoms industry around spectrum ownership, infrastructure economics, neutral-host models and regulatory oversight. This Insight Spotlight assesses these questions and grounds the TAM for mobile in reality.

As of Q1 2026, Starlink continues to maintain a significant gap in its deployed capacity versus the rest of the field. It has now deployed over 75% of its initial constellation. Meanwhile, Amazon's recent agreement to acquire Globalstar reinforces the trend of consolidation among satellite companies to address scale challenges. For operators, satellite capability is emerging as both a defensive necessity and competitive differentiator, positioning NTNs as a dual lever for ARPU uplift and churn reduction.

Amazon has agreed to acquire Globalstar in a deal valued at approximately $11.6 billion. It has indicated that it expects the deal to close in 2027, subject to regulatory clearance. This would pave the way for Amazon’s own direct-to-device satellite service launching in 2028. The deal will firmly place Amazon as the main competitor of Starlink in the burgeoning D2D space. But it also has ramifications for other satellite companies and telecoms operators.