China: First steps into high-speed services

2008 is likely to be a challenging year for operators in China as the first high-speed network is expected to be commercially launched by the Summer, driving an increase in competition. China has been growing by more than 18%, year on year, over the last ten quarters reaching a market penetration of 38% in Q3 2007. The biggest cellular market in the World has exceeded 500 million connections and GSMA Intelligence forecasts another 300 million net additions over the next five years.

China Mobile, the market leader, has been growing at a fast pace as it expands its coverage to rural areas and it has also been trialling its TD-SCDMA network. Both China Mobile and China Unicom are looking to offer a wider range of data services matching the focus of operators who have already launched high speed networks.

The tipping point for a fast adoption of high-speed services is network coverage. Four years after the launch of the first WCDMA network, Western operators have been slow at improving their WCDMA coverage which, in most countries, is still limited to the biggest urban areas. In a recent analysis, we found that 5-6% of China Mobile’s subscriber connections will be TD-SCDMA by 2010. However, in order to achieve such opportunities, the Chinese operator will have to make its high-speed network widely available.