Panels, perspectives and pipeline: reflections from industry events on the consumer outlook in 2026

In the last couple of weeks, I had the pleasure of attending several industry events in the UK: Connected Britain and the annual CCS Insights predictions event. 

Insights and discussions from these events gave me an opportunity to reflect on the research we have completed at GSMA Intelligence in 2025 and what is in the pipeline for 2026, with a focus on the consumer market. 

There are many trends shaping the consumer outlook for 2026. Here I will focus on a few: eSIM, MVNOs, circularity and satellite NTN.

eSIM

eSIM was a big topic, which is not surprising given recent news.  In the last few weeks, we saw two new important milestones: Apple launched eSIM-only smartphones worldwide (the new iPhone Air) and expanded the list of eSIM-only countries to 12 markets (mostly in Northern America and the Middle East); China’s three leading mobile operators launched commercial trials for eSIM smartphone services, after receiving regulatory approval. These should accelerate consumer adoption of eSIM. At GSMA Intelligence we reported on these events and we expect eSIM adoption to double in 2026 and will continue to do research into this area in the coming year.

When mentioning eSIM, you can’t ignore the phenomenon of the growth in the use of travel eSIM, which was also discussed at the CCS event. The use of eSIM by travellers has surged, spurring competition from non-telco companies with banks like Revolut and travel companies such as Trip.com now offering eSIMs for roaming. As an early adopter, I’ve seen first-hand how this technology reduces roaming costs. At GSMA Intelligence, our 2026 Consumer survey (planning will start in Q1 2026) will offer our subscribers an opportunity to get relevant insights which can inform commercial strategies and plans in the years ahead. Please do get in touch if interested. 

Growth of MVNOs

The events highlighted that Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) have been a defining trend throughout 2025. With the cost-of-living crises, consumers have become increasingly cost-conscious, with some turning to MVNOs for their competitive value propositions, whether through SIM-only deals or bundled handset offers. This shift is not limited to one region; it is a global trend, reflecting a broader demand for affordable and flexible mobile services.

MVNOs have succeeded in attracting users by offering compelling packages that often-undercut traditional Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) on price, while still delivering reliable connectivity. This dynamic has created both opportunities and challenges for established operators. On one hand, MNOs benefit from wholesale agreements with MVNOs, which can drive additional network utilisation and revenue. On the other, the success of MVNOs intensifies competition. Diving deeper into this, in November, GSMA Intelligence will publish a new major report on the state of the MVNO market and its outlook, including new trends to watch. Furthermore, GSMA Intelligence ongoing trackers provide detailed forecasts on the subscriber bases for Global MNOs and MVNOs for the next 5 years. Looking ahead to 2026, it will be fascinating to observe how operators respond to the continued rise of MVNOs, including the launch of sub-brands (which is a trend seen in many countries).

Handset Circularity 

The extended lifespan of mobile handsets is contributing significantly to the circularity market, where consumers increasingly select refurbished devices over new ones. Recent research by GSMA Intelligence, conducted in collaboration with the GSMA Climate Insights team, indicates sustained growth within this sector. This trend has notably supported the expansion of smartphone adoption, particularly in developing regions.

For mobile operators and the wider industry, this shift presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the circularity market supports sustainability goals and opens new revenue streams through trade-in programmes and device-as-a-service models. On the other, it may impact the sales of new devices. Looking ahead to 2026, GSMA Intelligence will continue to focus on this segment, putting a lens on trends and market developments via various research studies and tracking.

Satellite Connectivity /NTN

Satellite connectivity /NTN has emerged as a central theme in 2025, capturing significant attention at both the Connected Britain and CCS Insight events. The discussions underscored two major applications: the use of satellite technology to extend fixed network footprints and the rapid evolution of direct-to-device (D2D) satellite offerings by a growing number of global operators, which are either in deployment or development stages. At Connected Britain, various speakers explored how satellite can complement terrestrial networks, particularly in final footprint areas where traditional infrastructure is challenging or cost-prohibitive to deploy. 

The momentum behind D2D satellite connectivity was evident at both events. Device manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to deliver satellite-enabled services directly to consumer devices, moving beyond traditional handsets to include wearables. The recent launch of the Apple Watch Ultra 3, which offers satellite connectivity, exemplifies this trend.

Having worked on multiple satellite research projects for GSMA Intelligence consulting clients, I can confirm that industry interest is intensifying. In response, we will be increasing our focus on satellite connectivity in our annual tracking surveys throughout 2026. These surveys will provide valuable insights from both end-user and operator perspectives. Looking ahead, I anticipate that 2026 will see the introduction of more satellite-enabled user devices. The ongoing research by GSMA Intelligence will continue to monitor these developments.