Fixed broadband and pay TV: future outlook at a glance

Many developed markets around the world have now reached 90–100% fixed broadband household penetration. As growth in fixed broadband connections inevitably slows, the focus will shift to speed upgrades and connecting rural areas, where various options need to be considered (i.e. DSL, fibre, cable, 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and satellite). It remains uncertain if 5G FWA’s impact on the fixed broadband market will be marginal or substantive, but this will become clearer as more rollouts occur.

OTTs threaten traditional pay TV, but the impact varies by country. Cord cutting has hit the US the hardest, a market where pay-TV subscriptions have declined since 2013. In Europe, cord cutting has, in general, been less noticeable. We forecast that traditional pay-TV penetration will decline in four markets between 2019 and 2025, while the remaining markets will experience only slow growth.

This report looks at current and future trends in the fixed and pay-TV markets, globally and in major countries, calling out key drivers and operator initiatives. The accompanying workbook includes granular data on market-level connections’ forecasts across 20 countries. The dataset covers fixed voice, fixed broadband and traditional pay TV.