Domestic sales dampen European operator growth in Q3 - Euro crisis sees incumbent telcos relying on international growth

Europe’s large operator groups are increasingly being required to look outside of their home markets in order to sustain sales.

An analysis of Q3 2012 data from Europe’s four largest incumbent operators shows a decline in domestic sales across the board, though this trend was offset by revenues generated by their international operations.

Based on Q3 group sales, Europe’s top four operators are Spain’s Telefónica (€15.5 billion), Deutsche Telekom (€14.7 billion), France Telecom (€10.8 billion) and Telecom Italia (€7.3 billion). This is excluding UK-based Vodafone Group on the basis that it is not the fixed-line incumbent in its domestic market.

Telefónica is the least reliant on home revenue; Spain contributed just 23 percent to group sales in Q3. The group’s Latin American unit reported quarterly revenue of €7.6 billion (up 3.8 percent year-on-year), exceeding for the first time that of the European business, which posted revenue of €7.5 billion, down 6.8 percent. Brazil alone now accounts for 22 percent of group sales (compared to the 23 percent via Spain).

Previously a standalone unit, Spain was rolled into Telefónica’s Europe division last year following a group restructuring. Spain weighed heavily on the Europe numbers in Q3, with revenue decreasing 15.3 percent to €3.64 billion. The Spanish mobile unit (Movistar) was particularly affected, with sales falling 19.8 percent to €1.57 billion – a decline blamed on lower handset sales, cheaper tariffs and mobile termination rate cuts.

The contrasting trends of Telefónica’s Latin American and Europe divisions are also evident in the subscriber counts; the mobile customer base in Latin America increased by 10 percent year-on-year in Q3 to 175 million, while the European customer base shrank by 2 percent to 70.4 million

The combination of a weakening Spanish economy and a €56 billion debt burden has forced Telefónica to take steps to reduce its exposure to Europe’s volatile financial markets. The firm has decided to sell equity via IPOs in O2 Germany, its second-largest European market valued at about €8 billion, and in Latin America where its total portfolio is worth more than €40 billion.

By contrast, domestic sales at Deutsche Telekom have remained relatively stable during the eurozone crisis, helping the group offset weaknesses elsewhere in its European businesses – notably in Greece where it owns 40 percent of the country’s incumbent operator OTE.

Group revenue was down just 0.1 percent to €14.7 billion, on the back of better-than-expected German sales of €5.7 billion, which were down 1.3 percent and represented 39 percent of the total. Sales in the Europe segment (which excludes Germany) declined 5.7 percent year-on-year to €3.7 billion, primarily due to a 11.3 percent decline in Greece to €825 million. US sales (T-Mobile USA) were up 6.3 percent to €3.9 billion.

France Telecom suffered the largest year-on-year sales decline of the four operator groups in Q3 (down 3.5 percent), blaming “a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, strong competition in the French mobile market [via Iliad’s Free Mobile] and continued regulatory pressure.” It does not expect the situation to improve until 2014.

French sales fell 5.4 percent to €5.43 billion, accounting for 48 percent of the group total. With declines at France Telecom’s next two largest markets, Spain (down 1.0 percent) and Poland (down 5.5 percent), growth came via the group’s Rest of the World division, which increased revenue by 0.6 percent to €2 billion.

This included strong growth at France Telecom’s Africa and the Middle East unit, which increased sales by 4.6 percent, led by Côte d’Ivoire (up 20.9 percent), Egypt (up 2.0 percent) and Niger (up 33.9 percent).

Like Telefónica, Telecom Italia benefited from strong sales in its Latin American markets. However, revenue growth in Brazil (up 8.0 percent) and Argentina (18.2 percent) only partially offset a 7.9 percent contraction in organic terms in Italy. Group profit for the period was €681 million, down 13.4 percent, while group revenue was down 3.3 percent to €7.27 billion.

Unlike its more diversified peers, Telecom Italia is present in just three markets with its domestic unit accounting for 60 percent of sales in Q3.

Matt Ablott, Analyst, GSMA Intelligence:

According to the latest GSMA Intelligence ranking study by revenue, Europe’s five largest telcos (including Vodafone) are being eclipsed by operator groups in Asia and Latin America in terms of revenue growth. This should not come as a surprise. Incumbent players in Western Europe operating in largely saturated markets have for some years been pursuing value rather than market share; they will also point to strong growth in data revenue and rising smartphone penetration as proof that they are succeeding in transitioning subscribers to next-generation networks and services. Vodafone said this week that its European smartphone penetration has topped 30 percent overall, and almost 50 percent in its contract base. Service bundling and integrated offerings are also being deployed to extract value from customers and build customer loyalty.

The negative tailwinds from low-cost competition and regulatory moves on termination and roaming rates can be felt in most markets, but the macroeconomic impact is, as expected, most visible in Southern Europe. Vodafone – a challenger to the incumbents in Spain and Italy – booked an impairment charge of £5.9 billion this week relating to these two markets. Telefónica has been under pressure in its domestic market since taking the bold move to withdraw handset subsidies at the beginning of the year; one of several measures aimed at cutting costs. At a group level, the firm is determined to pay down debts and all of its assets appear under review. Meanwhile, Telecom Italia’s board is poised to make a decision soon on whether to spin-off its legacy fixed business, a move that could transform the debt-laden operator into a smaller but more dynamic player.

Selected European operator group revenue, Q3 2012
Source: GSMA Intelligence, company data