4G to account for 7% of global connections by 2016 - Wireless Intelligence publishes revised 2G/3G/4G classifications

Global 4G connections are forecast to surpass 500 million within four years, according to new GSMA Intelligence data. The new figures reflect revisions to the 2G, 3G and 4G classifications used in the new GSMA Intelligence database.

It is forecast that the number of 4G connections will grow 69 percent per annum (CAGR) between 2012 and 2016, rising from 45 million in Q2 2012 to 577 million by Q4 2016. 4G is expected to account for about 7 percent of the 8.3 billion total connections by this point, compared to less than 1 percent today.

2G will still account for the majority of connections by 2016 (55 percent) but the number of 2G connections is expected to decline by about 2 percent a year over the next four years as users continue to migrate to 3G and 4G technologies.

3G connections are forecast to grow 18 percent per annum over the period to about 3.2 billion, accounting for 38 percent of the total.

GSMA Intelligence is publishing the new data to highlight recent changes in its 2G, 3G and 4G technology classifications. While network technologies were previously assigned a generation classification based on the ITU definitions, several reclassifications have been made to better reflect current industry naming conventions.

The 4G classification now comprises several technologies: LTE, TD-LTE, AXGP, WiMAX, LTE Advanced, TD-LTE Advanced and WiMAX 2. This is in line with most current operator definitions, although it differs from the ITU’s strict definition of transitional versus true 4G. GSMA Intelligence had previously adhered to the ITU assessment that only LTE-Advanced and WiMAX 2 qualify as true 4G technologies.

Another significant change is the reclassification of CDMA2000 1X from a 3G to a 2G technology to make it comparable to the GSM standard. Later CDMA2000 1X technologies (EV-DO / Rev. A / Rev. B) remain classed as 3G.

The full list of technology classifications used by GSMA Intelligence can be viewed in our help archive.

In addition to the technology reclassifications, GSMA Intelligence has also revised its categorisation of countries and global regions. This is now in line with the official UN geoscheme, and includes geographical (continental) regions, geographical sub-regions, and selected economic groupings.

Global mobile connections by technology generation, 2012–2016 (forecasts)
Source: GSMA Intelligence