4G deployments reach a peak, but still room for growth

Our research shows that 4G network deployments have reached a peak, with launches in more than two-thirds of countries worldwide by just under half of all mobile operators (44%) as of June 2016. Although 4G has been deployed more quickly than 3G and rapidly reached a mature phase of development, work remains in many countries – particularly the developing world – to expand coverage and ensure consumers adopt the new technology.

Figure 1: Global 4G deployments, 2010–2016

Source: GSMA Intelligence

4G will soon be present in almost all territories worldwide

We recently published our Q2 2016 Global cellular market trends and insight. We have revamped the format of the series, adding close to 200 graphs and data visuals covering all geographic regions, with a special focus on the status of mobile network deployments. Our data shows that 4G LTE had been deployed across 166 countries worldwide by just over 500 mobile operators as of June 2016.

In our first round of 4G forecast assumptions published in 2010, we discussed the technology entering its infancy phase. Three years later, we described it as entering “a more mature phase of development”, projecting that more than 500 operators will have launched 4G by 2017 ─ not far from reality.

In 2016, 4G development can indeed be described as having reached a high level of maturity, as the technology only remains to be launched in 73 countries, together representing just 8% of global connections as of Q2 2016. Most of these are smaller states with market bases of fewer than 1 million connections. Our mobile network tracker has captured mobile operator public commitments to launch 4G in only a third of the 73 countries. Vietnam, Egypt and Turkey are set to be the next three significant market opportunities for 4G demand. These three countries represent a total base of almost 300 million connections, with Turkey recently announcing the arrival of 4G.

4G deployment alone is not the end game

Despite the large number of operators that have embraced 4G globally, there is still work to do to ensure network reach and adoption. 4G coverage as a share of the population has reached almost nationwide levels across the developed region, but it averages less than 50% in the developing region. More importantly, deploying the network does not necessarily ensure that consumers will use it; less than a quarter of global connections are currently running on 4G networks.

North America shows the highest level of adoption, with 60% of connections running on 4G to date, way ahead of second-placed Europe at 30%. This compares to just under 15% of connections in the developing region being 4G-enabled, with limited spectrum availability often hindering 4G growth, as explored in our recent Research Brief.

While headlines in the developed world are now focusing on technology that paves the way for 5G, understanding the numbers behind the rise of 4G and areas of low adoption continues to provide insight for all across the mobile ecosystem.