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Report
Most of North America has been subject to lockdown measures at some point in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. During this time, mobile has proved crucial in keeping individuals safe and economies functioning. Although the rate of 5G adoption was lower than initially expected in the first half of 2020 because of the pandemic, this is likely to be a blip. North America will reach 100 million 5G connections in 2022, and by 2025 it will have become the first region where 5G accounts for more than 50% of total connections.
The mobile industry in Sub-Saharan Africa has largely risen to the challenge of keeping individuals and businesses connected during the pandemic, despite changes in data consumption patterns. However, with nearly 800 million people in the region still not connected to the mobile internet, it has never been more urgent to close the digital divide.
The digital ecosystem across Asia Pacific has proved vital in the response to recent global challenges, especially the Covid-19 pandemic. Participants from the entire digital value chain are pulling together to ensure the most positive outcome possible.
2019 was a pivotal year for China. The country was one of the first globally to launch 5G services. With operators and enterprises forging ahead in the development of 5G services, and growing consumer excitement, China has cemented its position as a global leader in 5G.
By the end of 2019, 5.2 billion people subscribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the global population; this is forecast to grow by 600 million to 5.8 billion by 2025 (70% of the population). 2019 was also a pivotal year for 5G: the technology is now live in 24 markets, while 5G awareness and intention to upgrade among consumers are both on the rise. At the same time, 4G became the dominant mobile technology across the world constituting 52% of total connections; this figure will grow over the next few years, peaking at just under 60% of global connections in 2023.
By 2023, mobile's contribution to the Latin American economy will reach just over $300 billion as countries increasingly benefit from the increased uptake of mobile services and the associated improvements in productivity and efficiency. Driven by ongoing network investment and upcoming spectrum assignments, 4G adoption will accelerate in Latin America over the next few years, reaching 67% by 2025, and pave the way for 5G. The two technologies will coexist for a long time, with 5G's first commercial launch in the region expected in 2020.
5G services have become a reality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As of October 2019, 10 operators had launched commercial 5G services in five GCC Arab States. Mobile operators in these countries are aiming to be global leaders in 5G deployments, while governments view the technology as a potential enabler for their digital transformation ambitions. The 2020s will see 5G activities become more widespread across the region, with trials and commercial launches expected in non-GCC countries.
Following commercial launches by the four largest US mobile operators, 5G is now a reality. With Canada also set to deploy 5G in 2020, 5G adoption is expected to rapidly gather pace across North America. As such, the continent will be a leader of the 5G era. This report explores the mobile markets of the US, Canada and the Caribbean, including the impact mobile has on the North American economy and 5G-related developments and opportunities in the region.
Russia will lead the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the commercialisation of 5G services, with the region's other markets all launching 5G networks by 2025. 5G networks have the potential to transform the digital economy for businesses and citizens alike. This latest report highlights how Russia and the CIS region is preparing to enter this new era.
Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the fastest growing region, with an additional 167 million subscribers over the period to 2025. This will take the total subscriber base to just over 600 million, representing around half the population. Nigeria and Ethiopia will record the fastest growth rates between now and 2025, at 19% and 11% respectively.
At the end of 2018, 2.8 billion people (two-thirds of the population) in Asia Pacific subscribed to mobile service, a number that will grow to 3.1 billion by 2025. This growth in connectivity is helping the mobile industry increase its impact across all the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and is also making a significant contribution to the economy.
By the end of 2018, there were 185 million unique mobile subscribers in West Africa, an increase of nearly 10 million over the previous year. Future growth will largely be driven by young consumers owning a mobile phone for the first time; more than 40% of the sub-region’s population are under 18 years old. A considerable proportion will become young adults over the next decade.
Mobile technology is playing a pivotal role in the digital transformation of the Pacific Islands, providing access to life-enhancing services and acting as a catalyst for increasing productivity and efficiency. However, the region is seeing only modest mobile subscriber growth at a time when subscriber penetration rates remain well below regional and global averages. Although 38% of the population subscribed to a mobile service as at the end of 2018, this trails the average for least developed countries (44%).
China’s broad and diverse mobile ecosystem underpins the country’s digitisation strategy and is having a profound impact on consumers, businesses and wider society. With close to 1.2 billion subscribers, China is the largest mobile market globally. Particularly impressive is the rate of growth in mobile internet penetration, which reached 58% at year-end 2018.
By the end of 2018, 5.1 billion people around the world subscribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the global population. Of the 710 million people expected to subscribe to mobile services for the first time over the next seven years, half will come from the Asia Pacific region and just under a quarter will come from Sub-Saharan Africa.
By mid-2018, there were 442 million unique mobile subscribers across Latin America and the Caribbean, accounting for 68% of the population.
Advanced MENA markets are at the forefront of innovation, with the GCC Arab States in particular looking to be global leaders in the deployment of 5G networks.
At the end of 2017, there were 232 million unique mobile subscribers in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), equating to a penetration rate of 80% of the population. The CIS region is relatively diverse, with the headline numbers masking markets at different stages of development.
As of year-end 2017, 85% of the European population – 465 million people – subscribed to mobile services. The total addressable market for the region’s mobile operators is approaching saturation point, with the larger mobile markets such as France and the UK accounting for the majority of new unique subscribers.
North America has always been a benchmark for fast migration to new mobile technologies, with the highest levels of mobile internet penetration, mobile broadband and smartphone adoption globally. Its mobile industry is now preparing for 5G, which will show the fastest rate of adoption globally, reaching half the region’s total mobile connections by 2025.
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