New Flash: India is not China…Yet

Author: Peter Jarich, Head of GSMA Intelligence

The recent news that India now dominates smartphone shipments into the US – taking over the top spot from China – left me with three reactions. Wow, that was quick. Oh no, will this convince some people that tariffs are good? Oh no, do we need to deal with the India vs. China thing again?

Anyone with a basic grasp of geography knows that India and China are two VERY different countries. But their size, and maybe the fact that they make up 50% of the OG emerging market acronym (BRIC), inevitably leads to comparisons. High-level comparisons aside, you also see this in India’s national aspirations on the telecom front. Think BSNL’s ambitious growth plans (30% YoY revenue growth) backed by homegrown network infrastructure. Or the recent DoT draft policy (National Telecom Policy 2025 – NTP25) calling out 2030 strategic objectives including a doubling of telecoms exports, an increase of telecom manufacturing output by 150%, 100% 4G population coverage and 90% 5G coverage. Or the recent Bharat 6G Alliance review reinforcing a 10% global 6G IPR target.

No, none of this explicitly says “we want to be China.” But growth goals and outsized market scale lead to inevitable comparisons. 

Inevitable, maybe, but also misguided. Aspirations and acronyms aside, the comparisons just don’t add up on some key dimensions and taking them too far just sets everyone up for disappointment. 

• ARPU. You know this already (well, you should), but mobile ARPU in India is a fraction of that in China – about one-third for last year. This puts pressure on margins, profitability and sustained investment – particularly in a market where data traffic user is nearly the same (slightly higher in India, actually).
• Demographics. A plan to have 90% population coverage for 5G is impressive by any account. It’s more impressive in a country like India where 64% of the population is rural vs. China where that stat sits at 35%. A primarily urban population makes mobile coverage and digital transformation efforts easier.
• Ecosystem. India is not lacking for big tech players supporting the telco sector: TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HCL. Of course, we’re talking software and services companies, not hardware or device players. When it comes to supporting domestic operators with homegrown tech or scaling IP assets, the likes of Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO and Honor dwarf counterparts like Tejas, Micromax, Karbonn and lava. Size drives R&D scale, but also the development of supply chains critical for bring complex products to market.
• Market Structure & Policy. In their brief recapping MWC Shanghai this year, my colleagues Tim Hatt and Kalvin Bahia posited a simple question: Will progress in China be reflected elsewhere? They, then, suggested an answer in noting, “the unique nature of China’s mission-based economy, which receives significant government financial support, gives it an automatic boost that other countries lack, even advanced ones…” Whether it’s a tightly coordinated supply chain, national champion infrastructure vendors, or market structure engineering, the tight interconnection between China’s economic and political systems impacts how ecosystems are built and sectors are supported (including telecoms) in a way India hasn’t been able to match. 

But here’s another truism: things change. 

Consider the Indian mobile market 10 years ago when 10+ operators battled it out and 4G penetration was well under 1%. Today, 4G and 5G account for about 70% of connections and only five operators remain – with two dominating. 

Change on par with building a homegrown telecom infrastructure and device ecosystem or embedding mobile broadband into a wide set of verticals is clearly no small order. India is not on a trajectory to match China’s telecom muscle any time soon. But, AND THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART, if the best time to plant a tree was decades ago, then the next best is today. This is why the NTP-25 objectives or 6G aspirations are so important in understanding the market. And it’s why the ability to ramp up smartphone shipments into the US is more than just a random news item, it’s a signal of the country’s capabilities. India may not be China. But growing its role in telecom, delivering critical services for consumers and enterprise verticals, as well as manufacturing quality network or end-user kit – and doing it on a global scale – does require it to be. 

Not for nothing, it’s also why I’ve already booked my tickets for IMC 2025 (the India Mobile Congress one, not the International Medieval Congress one).