IoT: Big Growth, Bigger Questions

Author: Matthew Iji, Director of Forecasting & Modelling

We’ve updated our IoT revenue forecasts, and the numbers are big: global revenues are on track to hit $2 trillion by 2030 — double today’s figure. But dig deeper, and the story gets more complicated. The headline growth masks a fundamental imbalance: connectivity — the foundation of IoT — will still represent only around 4% of total revenues in 2030. That’s why service providers are moving quickly to layer on platforms, integration services, and security — the areas where the real money is being made.

Services are where momentum is building fastest. As IoT deployments scale, enterprises aren’t just buying connectivity or devices — they want solutions that fit into messy, hybrid environments with legacy systems and fragmented data. This is about delivering operational gains, compliance improvements, and new revenue streams, not just connecting more endpoints.

Platforms are evolving in the same direction. The early focus on device and connection management has given way to intelligence. AI-powered analytics, predictive maintenance, automation, anomaly detection — these are now table stakes. Enterprises want insights in real time, and they want them in a way that translates directly into better decision-making.

Hardware still has a major role, but margins are tightening. Tariff shifts and global supply chain pressures — particularly between the US and China — are making costs harder to manage. Device and module makers will need to think beyond hardware sales, moving into bundled services and recurring models to stay competitive.

By the end of the decade, enterprise use cases will account for almost four-fifths of IoT revenues, with manufacturing, health, utilities, and smart cities leading adoption. It’s a clear sign that the market is moving away from general-purpose platforms toward deep verticalisation, where value is tied to specific industry outcomes.

The challenge? Monetisation. Too many IoT connections still produce minimal revenue. Without new commercial models, the market could grow in size but underperform in profitability.

The next decade will define the winners and losers. Success won’t come from scale alone — it will come from those who can simplify complexity, deliver measurable value, and make IoT indispensable to the industries they serve.