Last month’s UN General Assembly session was unlike any other since the organisation was founded 75 years ago. In the first ever ‘virtual session’, world leaders stayed at home and delivered pre-recorded speeches to a mostly empty UN General Assembly hall. Nevertheless, despite the quiet corridors, there was a full programme. What’s more, the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [1] remained at the top of the agenda.

At the start of the year, the UN Secretary-General launched a “Decade of Action [2]”. While significant progress had been made since the SDGs were agreed by world leaders in 2015, it was recognised by governments and the international community that the world was not on track to achieve the Goals by 2030. The reduction in poverty was slowing down, the number of people suffering from hunger was on the rise, climate change was occurring much faster than anticipated and inequality continued to increase within and among countries.

The Covid-19 pandemic subsequently unleashed an economic and human development crisis. In addition to causing more than 1 million deaths, the economic and social impacts have been devastating. In the short term, global GDP is expected to fall by 4.9 per cent in 2020 – the largest contraction since the Great Depression – and over 90 per cent of the world’s student population were at some point unable to attend school. The UN expects that more than 70 million people will be pushed back into extreme poverty by the end of the year, the first increase in global poverty in more than two decades.

Mobile technology and sustainable development
In these unprecedented times, the GSMA recently published its fifth annual Mobile Industry SDG Impact Report [3], which shows that 2019 was the mobile industry’s most impactful year in terms of its contribution to the SDGs. Many people will be familiar with the connectivity figures highlighted in the report: 5.1 billion individuals (two thirds of the world’s population) using a mobile phone and 3.8 billion people (almost half the global population) using mobile internet. What is perhaps less well known is what people are using their phones for.

[4]Some of the most popular activities will come as no surprise, namely instant messaging, social networking, reading the news and watching online videos. But in recent years, there has been a notable increase in the use of other services (see chart left, click to enlarge). More than 2 billion people have now used mobile financial services, purchased goods online and accessed educational information for themselves or their children. More than 1.5 billion people have used their device to improve or monitor their health, or to look and apply for a job.

The benefits of getting people online and enabling these types of services are clear.

Since 2015, the increase in mobile adoption has driven an increase in global GDP of $360 billion (4 per cent of economic growth), as well as providing employment for five million more people (the industry now supports 30 million jobs worldwide). Mobile technology drives a reduction in Greenhouse Gas emissions that is 10 times greater than the carbon footprint of the industry. And a recent study [5] by the GSMA and the World Bank shows that mobile technology can reduce poverty. At a more personal level, the majority of mobile owners believe that their device helps them in their day-to-day work and studies, and also makes them feel safer.

This trend in usage is likely to have intensified since the outbreak of Covid-19, as individuals have become more reliant on digital services to adhere to lockdown and physical distancing rules and lower the virus transmission rate. However, while connectivity has provided people with a lifeline during the past nine months, Covid-19 has also reinforced the impacts of the digital divide, with the unconnected – who tend to be poorer and have lower levels of education – less able to mitigate the economic and social disruptions to their lives. Without an acceleration of efforts to connect the unconnected and increase the use of life-enhancing – or in many cases life-saving – services, the world will not be able to meet the ambitious targets that have been set for the next ten years.

Connecting the next half
The goal of achieving universal internet access is therefore more important than ever. This will involve addressing two connectivity ‘gaps’ that are highlighted in the recently-published State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2020 report [6]: the ‘coverage gap’ (those living outside of areas covered by mobile broadband networks) and the ‘usage gap’ (those that live within reach of a network but are not using mobile internet).

The coverage gap now stands at just under 600 million (or 7 per cent of the global population), following continued network deployments in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The usage gap however stands at 3.4 billion people – six times larger than the coverage gap. There are many reasons for people not connecting and, encouragingly, there have been positive developments across several barriers to adoption. Adults in low- and middle-income countries are increasingly aware of mobile internet and the relevance it has to their lives. Affordability of both mobile devices and data continues to improve, particularly with the launch of new ‘smart feature phones’ priced at $10-20 and cheaper smartphones. Nevertheless, barriers around literacy and skills persist, affordability remains a significant challenge for the poorest in society and there are also increasing concerns around the safety and security of connecting.

Addressing all of these barriers will require a collective effort, and the measures that are needed extend not just to the mobile industry but also Governments, the local digital sector, global Internet companies, civil society and the international development community. The challenges of Covid-19 have led to more collaboration between these different players, which will need to continue over the next decade and beyond. Fortunately, there is now an opportunity to build on this cooperation by continuing to implement innovative and targeted initiatives that help to bridge the digital divide.

– Kalvin Bahia, Economist, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://sdgs.un.org/goals
[2] https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/decade-of-action/
[3] https://www.gsma.com/betterfuture/2020sdgimpactreport/
[4] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/photo.png
[5] https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33712
[6] https://www.gsma.com/r/somic/

September has been a manufacturing month.

Earlier in the month, GSMA Intelligence hosted a webinar [1] discussing whether manufacturers have the appetite for new services, with panellists from Reliance Jio, Verizon, AWS and Siemens, a good mix across the IoT ecosystem, with Mobile World Live holding a broader Themed Week [2] on Smart Manufacturing and Industry 4.0.

And, what did we learn? Not only during our webinar but also during the entirety of the manufacturing week? Can I do it in six takeaways?

Long lasting impact of Covid-19
It is hard to ignore what is currently happening around the globe and how the face of manufacturing will change forever, emphasising the need for digital transformation. But, Azad Singh, chief of global mobility solutions at Reliance Jio, also stressed the importance of minimising human presence at manufacturing facilities. The consensus is the current crisis amplifies the need for flexible manufacturing (easily adapting to changes) and the need for different types of data to be collected and analysed. The ability to remotely monitor and access manufacturing plants has never been more important, not only to achieve business benefits but also to save lives. We’ve highlighted the impact of Covid-19 (coronavirus) on the manufacturing sector in a recent research piece [3].

Data is key
As I’ve written time and time again, IoT is all about data: it is key to digital transformation. Throughout the week’s sessions, the need and demand to collect data came through strong. Devices and assets are being connected (using multiple technologies) to collect data, and run the analytics in order to improve processes. Welcome to the virtuous cycle, where the more data is collected and analysed, the more benefits can be achieved. It is not surprising that the most deployed manufacturing IoT solutions are data driven to control for quality, enable automation and simplify management of supply chains, systems and machinery (see chart, below, click to enlarge). Of course, we see the inherent value in data from the fact our Enterprise in Focus survey shows 50 per cent of manufacturing companies already use AI/ML. Why? Making sense of data is what helps enterprises to achieve business outcomes. [4]

Partner for success
The role of partners coming together has been echoed throughout the recent news, but also the examples from the week, be it Supermicro and NodeWeaver showcasing how they address the intelligent edge, or Ericsson and PTC discussing their joint go-to-market proposition. The week’s overall sentiment was that working together enables futureproof investments and allows companies to learn from one another’s experiments. This was also a key take away from our panel discussion [5] on how to best digitise manufacturing: each vendor might have bits and pieces of a solution, but solving a problem together is key, Khondoker Huq, global head of marketing strategy, IoT at SAS pointed out, and brings the value to customers TTTTech Industrial Automation director of product management IoT, Alexander Bergner noted. During our webinar, Douglas Bellin, business development executive, Industry 4.0 and Smart Factory for AWS, further exemplified that customers are asking for best practice and examples so they can accelerate deployment and succeed faster.

Start early
While commercial 5G use cases are still a way away, Moiz Badri, IIoT product manager at Verizon, recommended to start now to understand how to use data. Providing real-life examples of how 5G IoT can benefit enterprise operations is key. Verizon and AWS illustrate this: they partnered to engineer and design a solution to enable edge computing on the Verizon 5G network, supporting mission-critical applications not previously possible, including autonomous industrial equipment and smart factories. There will be different modes of 5G deployments ranging from network slicing to dedicated private networks, but testing and finding the optimal way to deploy 5G should already be on the roadmap. As Chris White, Ford Motor Company 5GEM project lead explained, the car maker’s recent 5G private network partnership [6] with Vodafone UK allowed for flexibility from a data perspective compared with a hardwired approach. Foxconn [7]’s chief business officer Richard Vincent highlighted the wired/Wi-FI networks aren’t always the best at collecting real-time data from his experience. As existing LTE-based private networks will move to 5G, they do address the need for security and robustness and, what is becoming ever so important, collecting data in a flexible way from moving equipment.

Edge to the rescue?
Historically, manufacturers were resistant to moving their data into the cloud, thus cloud adoption in manufacturing is still relatively low. The Covid-19 pandemic, however, has highlighted the need for remote access and cloud enables just that. Enterprises are increasingly sending data to the cloud, training models there, but making decisions at the edge to empower agile operations. And it isn’t surprising recent months witnessed a slew of activity in the space, with cloud providers partnering with operators to capture the edge opportunity, for example:

AWS Wavelink partnership extends beyond Verizon and includes Vodafone, KDDI and SK Telecom
Microsoft Azure edge zones with operators including AT&T; Rogers; Vodafone; Telefonica; Proximus; SK Telecom; Telstra; NTT Communication; and Etisalat, just recently pulled into Operators for Azure umbrella
Google Mobile Edge Cloud, which includes AT&T, TIM, Telefonica and Orange

Mobile operators themselves are keen to explore this opportunity via The Telco Edge Cloud (TEC) platform formed in March 2020, which looks to become a digital one-stop shop. The go to market strategy isn’t fully formed yet but GSMA seeks broad market input from companies who expect to benefit from edge cloud services; so if you identify yourself as such please participate in this survey. [8]

Think outcomes not technology
Michael Zeto, SVP of Boingo Wireless [9], summed up much of our thinking when he said enterprises buy outcomes not technology. While discussing the factory of the future he also sees a mix of private networks, CBRS and edge enabling value delivery. Starting the conversation from the technology standpoint, however, isn’t what enterprises need. Jan Pawlewitz, SVP consulting, Digital Enterprise and Services at Siemens, pointed to the fact enterprises are thinking of business case and value, therefore it is important for vendors to demonstrate their ability to do the heavy lifting and help to build the business case. To this end, Kiva Allgood, head of IoT, Business Area Technologies and New Businesses at Ericsson, flagged the necessity to focus conversations from proof of concept to proof of value.

I couldn’t agree more.

As per our Enterprise in Focus Survey, custom-made products from one provider come out on top, since these make it easy for enterprises to deploy solutions which address their needs but also to realise cost saving as enterprises look to rationalise spend and consolidate their suppliers, favouring single end-to-end suppliers. Vendors recognise this: Steve Dertien, CTO and MD of the office of the CTO at PTC said they need “a trusted IoT partner”. This requires partnerships and cooperation between ecosystem players to enable just that.

– Sylwia Kechiche – principal analyst, IoT and Enterprise, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://view6.workcast.net/register?cpak=5690505963484246
[2] https://mobileinsights.mobileworldlive.com/themed-weeks/smart-manufacturing-industry-40/
[3] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/5g-grants-operators-an-opportunity-to-address-manufacturing
[4] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/GSMAi_IoT_solution_adoption.png
[5] https://mobileinsights.mobileworldlive.com/themed-weeks/feature-partnerships-drive-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
[6] https://mobileinsights.mobileworldlive.com/themed-weeks/interview-article-ford-uk-warns-on-5g-factory-challenges/
[7] https://mobileinsights.mobileworldlive.com/themed-weeks/interview-article-data-is-common-thread-in-smart-manufacturing-foxconn/
[8] https://gsma.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_cRYsvDKTD9hWfXf
[9] https://mobileinsights.mobileworldlive.com/themed-weeks/mobile-mix-drilling-down-on-industry-40/

As a part of our blog series this year, we have looked at Sri Lanka [1], Taiwan [2] and South Africa [3] to study how suited they are for launching 5G.

Our next market in focus, the Czech Republic, exudes such readiness given its sound 4G adoption (see chart, below, click to enlarge). What makes the country particularly interesting, though is an existing need of 5G in in support of Industry 4.0 aspirations.

With three established players (T-Mobile, O2 and Vodafone), in Q2 the Czech Republic had around 14.8 million mobile connections, mobile penetration of 138 per cent, mobile broadband penetration of 80 per cent and 4G network coverage of 99.6 per cent.

[4]

Needless to say, the country exhibits impressive statistics, serving as a solid foundation for 5G. To that end, a steady shift towards 5G is predicted, with connections penetration forecast to reach 22 per cent by the end of 2025, which is quite impressive relative to other European Union (EU) countries.

Beyond any 5G foundations, the latest developments from the country’s operators and regulator show how momentum is accelerating to help bring 5G into the mainstream.

Operators’ strategies
O2 Czech Republic became the first operator in the market to launch commercial 5G services in July, during the pandemic, by refarming existing LTE frequencies in the 800MHz, 1800MHz, 2100MHz and 2600MHz spectrum bands.

Vodafone, in turn, announced it would disconnect its 3G network by Q1 2021: it expects to use the frequencies more efficiently allowing additional available bandwidth for 5G as it stands ready to launch a network in October.

Industry 4.0 focus
Along with these on-going developments, the Czech Republic is joining only a select few EU countries in reserving spectrum for enterprise use.

The regulator is promoting Industry 4.0 by reserving a spectrum block in the 3400MHz to 3600MHz band specifically for its deployment by enterprises. The holders of these blocks will be obliged to allow the industry an independent use of the radio frequencies.

Now, the key questions are why does Industry 4.0 matter so much for the Czech Republic and what role will 5G play?

The answers lie in the importance of the manufacturing sector, which contributed 32 per cent to the nation’s GDP in 2019. The booming industrial sector now leads all other sectors in terms of employment and gross value added. However, two key challenges threaten this success: an increasingly acute labour shortage; and low productivity, which is pushing the nation into a middle-income trap.

Technology and automation can possibly address the above challenges, delivering digitised production lines and robotic systems in support of smart factories. The development of such applications and platforms, of course, will largely depend on the existence of fast, reliable and high capacity networks. Offering low latency, high speed and throughput 5G, then, promises to be the technology which will enable Industry 4.0.

But what do operators need to be conscious of in the push for Industry 4.0?

Simply launching 5G won’t be enough to make Industry 4.0 a reality. Operators need to be proactive on the following areas to get a leading advantage.
• Partnership and collaborations: It is critical to develop strong collaborations with vendors, other ecosystem players like software and platform companies, and also with manufacturers to establish more 5G use-cases for industry and for the application of smart factories
• Early trials and developments in manufacturing: As important as the right partnerships are, equally important is leveraging those partnerships to run trials of applications and solutions in Industry 4.0, such as automation, data analytics, AI, Robotics, Drones and so on. This provides an opportunity for the Czech Republic to lead other countries in Industry 4.0 developments and specific use cases within its domain. Likewise, early efforts will help to work through inevitable technology teething pains
• Don’t let auction delays stop you: If auctions experience a snag, service providers have good prospects to replicate what operators in other countries did by not waiting and launching 5G without dedicated spectrum, using existing frequencies to get moving on the path. This will offer operators a window to continue planning networks planning and use cases well in advance of long term spectrum rights.

The Czech Republic’s telecom landscape is robust and appears ripe for 5G launches. Moreover, the existing requirements of Industry 4.0 and the ability of 5G networks to deliver on those promises clear synergies. The manufacturing sector gains by automation and reduced labour dependency. Operators, meanwhile, benefit from a new customer segment (manufacturing) and can better support consumer demands at the same time.

The nation presents an opportunity to offer some of the interesting developments in Industry 4.0. What is required, at this juncture, is for operators to act quickly and work towards partnerships, and expedite 5G launches as the technology can serve as a much-needed boost to the sector coupled with lift to the economy.

– Bhawna Jain – senior research analyst and Akanksha Hira – research analyst, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/blog/intelligence-brief-should-sri-lanka-push-4g-or-5g
[2] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/blog/intelligence-brief-how-promising-is-5g-in-taiwan
[3] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/blog/intelligence-brief-does-5g-promise-brighter-future-for-south-africa
[4] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CzechRepublic_tech_connections_proportion_GSMAi.png

In the 18 months since 3GPP Release 15 was frozen in 2018, operators and equipment vendors have focused their efforts on conducting technical feasibility tests with B2B customers to uncover the network capabilities required to support real-life industry applications. In July, China Mobile moved past technical tests to announce its commercial offering for 5G private networks. What is noteworthy here is China Mobile has simply started the first of many iterations of such service bundling by operators. Expect tighter identification of business needs in coming months: having an actual offering gives buyers and sellers a focal point from which to evolve the 5G private networks portfolio, sifting through what is good to have and what is absolutely essential. Longer term, expect the dust to settle to reveal operator winners in 5G private networks.

What is China Mobile offering?
In the classic convention of using mnemonics to label packages in China as 1+N+X, China Mobile modelled its 5G private network offering into three packages, guided by six typical network requirements and four services capabilities, id est: One network; N combinations of menu components; and X technologies.

To customers in China, this offering becomes the first time they see what and how they can buy a 5G private network. In this case, they select their packages based on three levers of pricing: network speed; extent of private network requirements; and the business value expected from the network. They pay based on well-understood network parameters including bandwidth, speed and number of connections.

What is new to B2B customers, however, is the ability to pick the types of services they need: a menu of four network services that should align to the business value expected from the network. First, network design services are structured to meet network customisation requirements including the option to help B2B customers understand different network deployment model options. Second, network optimisation services include the traditional wireless access optimisation as well as the cloud-native core network. Third, network operations and maintenance services are as described, network monitoring and predictive maintenance, but also includes SLA queries that are essential for service guarantees. The final network service is service guarantees, with the usual round-the-clock service support, but also guarantees for seasonal peak traffic patterns and incident response capabilities.

What is new about China Mobile’s offer and why does it matter?
Comprehensive services portfolio: China Mobile’s offering reflects their B2B ambitions not only from their desired technical leadership position but also from their aspirations in delivering associated services. Judging by China Mobile’s more than 18-month efforts to get to this point of a commercial offering, we can infer they are ready to deliver these services and hopefully to profit. Indeed, the addition of the word ‘service’ is an important distinction in identifying the winners in terms of the addressable market for 5G. Using GSMA Intelligence IoT revenue forecast methodology, the 2025 IoT market size will reach $900 billion, of which connectivity makes up only 5 per cent of the total market. Any 5G uplift to an operator will have to come from additional professional services as well as other solutions such as platforms, analytics, security and applications. A proposition with both network and services capabilities shows an operator’s ambition to compete with not only their peers but also the wider technology players such as system integrators, industry engineering services companies, and consulting/business processing outsourcing companies. Other market-leading operators will now have a known commercial offering to fine-tune their propositions.
Pick and choose menu: B2B customers now have a clear price book from which to build commercial metrics behind their investments into 5G private networks and considerations for their optimal deployment configuration. For example, it is important to note China Mobile’s offering is organised into an entry level tier of a public network slice in Special; a hybrid option in Exclusive; and a fully dedicated package in VIP. Since there is no one size fits all deployment mode for B2B customers, China Mobile will begin to discover which package will be more popular. For now, Liu Jian, general manager of China Mobile’s Business segment, believes that the middle package (Exclusive) will be more common among B2B customers.

What next for operators?
Iterative 5G private networks offerings: If operators’ M2M/IoT strategies are a good leading indicator of 5G private network ambitions, then we can expect operators to narrow their 5G B2B offerings throughout the next three to five years. This means operators will first cast a very big net to see what they catch and then begin to right size their target customers, reach of partners and breadth of portfolio. B2B customer demands need time to form: currently B2B customers have limited experience to experiment with what and how to buy 5G private networks. Operators will also need practical deployment experience, especially those who offer accompanying services to their network capabilities. To do this, working with vendors on experiments will help with failing fast by leveraging existing references for use cases and best practices to accelerate commercial deployments.
Deliver on beyond core ambitions: To the extent that operators are B2B-focused, professional services such as network services are important to meet customer needs. Our Operator in Focus survey suggests a high proportion of operators self-identify as currently offering 4G private networks. However, revenue reporting thus far suggests operators are not yet offering additional services which are reflected in revenue. Using China Mobile as an example, its H1 business revenue grew 18.4 per cent year-on-year and the proportion of non-connectivity business revenue increased from 29.2 per cent to 37.9 per cent. Strong performance in H1, but the majority of non-connectivity business revenue comes from internet data centres or IT infrastructure. The services revenue from B2B customers is likely insignificant.

Revenue from services-oriented ambitions will take operators years to materialise. Regardless, this transition requires investors who are patient: expect to see more organisational restructure in the coming years as operators align their beyond core connectivity ambitions.

– Yiru Zhong – lead analyst, IoT and Enterprise, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

On 13 August, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) published its response to petitions made by public safety and utility companies to reconsider a decision to open up the entire 6GHz band for unlicensed use. A day later, Aviat Networks (a microwave network equipment company) announced the results of its tests on the effects of unlicensed device use at 6GHz on microwave point-to-point links operating in the same band, showing some interference for incumbent users in the band. The next day, a separate FCC filing was made by Google wanting to test a radio system working on the 6GHz band across 26 states in the US.

While you may have missed or decided to ignore these recent pieces of news, they highlight an important mobile dynamic.

The need for connectivity is greater than ever, driving demand for more spectrum
Global lockdowns have emphasised we rely on connectivity like never before. Moving forward, shifts in patterns of work and entertainment will likely accelerate the need for higher network speeds and greater capacity. 5G networks will sit at the heart of a new ecosystem and will deliver a clear step-change in the capability and functionality of networks.

Despite the impact of the Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the world has now clearly entered the 5G era. As of the end of the second quarter, GSMA Intelligence figures showed 5G was commercially available from 87 operators in 39 markets worldwide. The global number of 5G connections stood at 57 million and will rise to nearly 145 million by the end of 2020, as more markets see 5G launches and adoption levels in the early-adopter markets ramp.

Mid-band spectrum (1GHz to 6GHz) is key for the success of 5G. With the growth in mobile data traffic, a trend set to accelerate with the widespread launch of 5G networks, operators will require access to growing amounts of spectrum to meet demand. While the 3.5GHz band has emerged as key for 5G at a global level, offering the optimum balance of coverage and capacity, the 6GHz band could play a role in the future of 5G, allowing additional access to much sought-after mid-band spectrum

Current and proposed uses of the 6GHz band
The 6GHz band (5,925MHz to 7,125MHz), as recent news suggests, has garnered attention as it is being considered for a number of new uses: licensed 5G and unlicensed uses such as RLAN, Wi-Fi and unlicensed 5G. The band currently has incumbent users including fixed links for mobile backhaul and fixed satellite service. Use of the upper part of the band (6,425MHz to 7,125MHz) will be discussed at WRC-23, with a view to opening it for IMT applications such as 5G.

While some countries are considering using, or have decided to use, the band for unlicensed applications, others have committed to different plans. The US supports unlicensed use for all of the band, while Europe opted for unlicensed use in the lower part only (below 6,425MHz). China, meanwhile, supports the use of the entire 6GHz band for licensed 5G.

Early decisions on band for unlicensed use may be hasty
Looking at the current regulation being developed around the unlicensed use of the 6GHz band, there are already a lot of differences. The most notable are around frequency ranges, radiated power levels, indoor and outdoor restrictions and use of databases to protect incumbent services in band. The lack of coordination is likely to lead to interference issues, with many of the benefits of harmonisation unrealised.

Further, countries that allow unlicensed use of the 6GHz band at this early stage will find it difficult to reverse the decision and clear the band at a later stage. We saw the effects of such a process not long ago in Europe. CEPT’s efforts to clear the 3.5GHz band, move incumbents out and reorganise it have been strenuous. There was an impact in terms of delays in assigning spectrum, which meant some countries could only make available relatively small amounts of spectrum, creating scarcity and driving up spectrum prices. The results of the spectrum auction in Italy where operators paid €4.02 billion for such little spectrum are a bitter reminder.

The case for licensed use is robust
The benefits of spectrum harmonisation are well known and proven. Harmonisation refers to the uniform allocation of frequency bands across entire regions, not just individual countries. Uniform allocation typically leads to a much broader ecosystem in terms of technology, equipment and general engineering expertise. It also promotes confidence among equipment manufacturers and service providers to invest. It ultimately benefits consumers through the realisation of significant economies of scale, lower costs of deployment for operators and rapid rollout of new services. Without spectrum harmonisation it is unlikely that mobile would have become the success story it is today. And that is one of the main reasons why countries try as much as possible to be aligned, with the ITU and WRC leading this important development.

The payback for harmonisation is further complemented by the licensed use of spectrum, which brings two additional significant benefits: greater reliability and better network performance.

While some may argue there is a certain momentum around the new use of the 6GHz spectrum band, it’s important not to overlook some of these important considerations.

A rushed decision now can lead to difficulties reversing further down the track.

– Dennisa Nichiforov-Chuang – lead analyst, spectrum, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

European economies are facing a fresh financial slump as a result of the Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. But the silver lining for telecoms is that we are relying on connectivity like never before, with increased data consumption and a renewed focus on network reliability as working from home becomes normal and we see the beginnings of a demographic shift away from city centres. Telecoms is expected to play a key role in economic recovery, with leading industry bodies emphasising that the sector is ready to work with European Union (EU) institutions, national governments and the broader stakeholders’ community to lift the continent out of recession.

A great deal of operator investment in Europe over the past decade has been focussed on fibre rollout, as increased demand for data puts pressure on legacy networks. Operator capex, however, continues to be stretched by the high cost of new technologies like 5G, while facing increasing competition from disruptors and new entrants all looking for a slice of the connectivity pie. Many governments have recognised the importance of fibre and regulation has a role to play. But operators also need to be open to rethinking their investment models and consider partnerships, consolidation or divestment to enable fibre rollout.

The role of regulation
Governments and regulators in Europe have largely recognised the importance of connectivity and made it a key part of management and recovery strategies. Many governments set ambitious broadband speed and coverage targets to incentivise operator rollout. The UK government earmarked £5 billion ($6.7 billion) to bring gigabit-capable broadband to underserved regions, while Spain is directing nearly €1 billion ($1.2 billion) of state and EU funding to connect areas with no current or planned coverage.

But coverage targets need a clear and beneficial regulatory environment in addition to financial support which recognises fibre is key to connectivity. Fixed fibre connectivity offers great network performance and resilience, but is costly and somewhat inflexible. Operators need to consider a number of options to connect their users, including fibre, hybrid options like fixed-wireless access, and mobile 4G and 5G networks. Governments need to acknowledge this and regularly implement and update economic incentive plans for the rollout of high-speed fibre networks.

Fibre at the core of connectivity
Continued growth in fixed and mobile connectivity relies on backhaul options that can keep up with data demand. Fibre backhaul is not just key to fixed technologies like FTTH, it’s the link that connects mobile base stations to the rest of the operator’s network and then onto the internet. It’s important because it has a direct impact on network performance and user experience, such as download speeds and latency. A superfast RAN link from the mobile base station to the user or vice-versa falls flat if the backhaul link can’t keep up.

Fibre backbone is becoming more important as 5G connections increase and networks mature. Operators are also looking to the enterprise sector as it becomes clear the consumer sector will not be able to fund expensive 5G rollouts on its own. Standalone networks promise consistently high speeds and ultra-low latency, but these rely on solid, uninterrupted connectivity on uncongested networks. And the whole range of 5G technologies currently being touted to improve connectivity and network performance, such as open RAN, network slicing, dynamic spectrum sharing and virtualisation, will not be possible without fibre backbone. And new funding models are now needed to facilitate fibre expansion.

Consolidation and divestment
There is no doubt operators need to invest in fibre, but this doesn’t necessarily mean costly network rollout. Europe, in particular, has recently seen a wave of fixed/mobile consolidation. Vodafone Group recognised its limited fibre assets could be a hindrance to network expansion, so embarked upon a number of acquisitions and partnerships in the cable sector with Liberty Global and its subsidiaries. The combination of BT and EE in the UK was largely driven by content, but EE’s 5G rollout will undoubtedly benefit from access to BT’s fibre. Meanwhile in Italy, disruptive new entrant Iliad signed a partnership deal with wholesale operator Open Fiber. Fixed operators are also recognising the strength of expanding their fibre network through consolidation, such as Euskaltel in Spain.

Another important trend is infrastructure divestment. Many European operators are spinning off their tower and fibre assets into separate businesses. Telefonica hived off its mast mobile masts into its Telxius subsidiary, while Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone have separated some of their tower assets and are seeking to sell part of them through a listing or private sale. These divestments improve financial efficiency as the operators can use those assets for their own operations while wholesaling them to others.

Staying agile to boost economic recovery
The need for fibre in connectivity is indisputable and the advent of 5G has made this even more paramount in a Covid-19 world. But disruption in the sector continues from new entrants seeking wholesale access to the mobile and fixed ISPs, low-cost players like Iliad, and outside influences like Google and Amazon.

Operators need to be highly adaptable and stay open to a wide range of fibre expansion opportunities. Governments, regulators and investors also have a role to play in enabling this flexibility, if operators are to be allowed to make the most of expansion opportunities to help drive the economic recovery.

– Tim Hatt – head of research, and Peter Boyland – lead analyst, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

Women in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) are 8 per cent less likely than men to own a mobile phone and 20 per cent less likely [1] to use mobile internet, or own a smartphone.

While this mobile gender gap is well documented, new econometric analysis by GSMA Intelligence and GSMA Connected Women finds women are less likely than men to own a mobile phone, use mobile internet, or own a smartphone even when other relevant socio-economic and demographic factors are controlled for.

As a result, women are prevented from accessing essential services for health, education and finance, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. To address this issue, it is essential to understand what the underlying drivers of the gap are.

Are women less likely to use mobile because of broader gender inequalities in literacy, education, income or employment, or are there other factors at play?
To answer these questions, we have carried out new quantitative analysis (available on request) to better understand the key drivers of mobile ownership, mobile internet use and smartphone ownership, using three years of data (spanning 2017 to 2019) across 31 LMICs from GSMA Intelligence’s face-to-face consumer surveys.

The results show how key demographics influence uptake of mobile handsets, mobile internet and smartphones, building on previous research by various organisations on how different factors impact the mobile gender gap. Our findings show that:

Individuals in rural areas are less likely to own a mobile phone than urban populations, and the effect is even greater for mobile internet and smartphone adoption.
Those with lower incomes and those not working are less likely to own a mobile, use mobile internet, and own a smartphone.
Individuals that have only completed primary education are less likely to own a mobile, use mobile internet and own a smartphone than those with a degree or above, and those that have completed secondary education are more likely than those with only primary education, but less likely than those with a degree.
Similarly, those with low levels of literacy are less likely to access these three types of mobile technology than those with good literacy skills.
This analysis also finds that the probability of the three types of mobile technology adoption generally declines with age.

Women are less likely than men to own a mobile phone, use mobile internet or own a smartphone, even when other relevant socioeconomic and demographic factors are controlled for
Due to broader gender inequalities in literacy, education, income or employment, the above results show women are less likely to adopt and use mobile technology than men. However, addressing these inequalities will not close the gender gap completely. Even if women in LMICs had the same levels of education, income, literacy and employment than men, our analysis finds there would still be a gap in the adoption and use of mobile technology.

In other words, this additional negative effect can be solely attributed to gender.

Even when all these other relevant socio-economic and demographic factors are controlled for, women in LMICs are 5 percentage points less likely than men to own a mobile phone; 6 percentage points less likely to use mobile internet; and 4 percentage points less likely to own a smartphone.

This gender effect could be attributed to mechanisms which are hard to measure such as discrimination and social norms. We found this gender effect is worse for women living in rural areas, those who are unemployed, and those with lower levels of literacy.

By region, this gender effect was particularly strong in Africa and Asia, whereas in Latin America women are just as likely as men to own a mobile, use mobile internet or own a smartphone once other relevant factors are controlled for. This suggests certain types of women face different degrees of the gender effect which prevents them from becoming digitally included.

The results of this study have important implications.

They suggest even if broader gender inequalities in socio-economic outcomes are addressed, such as equalising access to income and education among men and women (which in itself is unlikely to occur in the short-term), there is still likely to be a persistent mobile gender gap. These less visible drivers, which could for example relate to discrimination or social norms in certain countries and which certain segments of women appear to experience more acutely, need to be better understood and addressed if the gender gap is to ever be closed.

Caroline Butler – economist, GSMA Intelligence and Matt Shanahan – insights analyst, GSMA Connected Women

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://www.gsma.com/r/gender-gap/
[2] https://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/blog/why-covid-19-has-increased-the-urgency-to-reach-women-with-mobile-technology/

In our recently published report IoT revenue: state of the market 2020 [1], we highlight how the overall size of the IoT revenue opportunity in 2025 will be $900 billion, a 2.6-times increase on the 2020 figure. However, we factored in a contraction of $200 billion in IoT revenue compared to our 2018 forecast. Covid-19 (coronavirus) is obviously a driver of this revision. The pandemic has disrupted the world as we know it, both on the supply and demand side. While IoT budgets and spending will contract in the short term, the legacy of Covid-19 will be faster digital transformation. To address this opportunity, players across the IoT ecosystem have to work together to simplify deployments and address the needs of end-users, whether that’s consumers, enterprises or governments.

While forecasting anything in the current climate is tough, I’ve highlighted below some of the key assumptions and drivers influencing our new revenue forecast (see chart, click to enlarge).

[2]

Deeper recession
In June, the IMF adjusted its outlook on the depth of the economic crisis. It now projects global growth at –4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook forecast. There are still massive uncertainties, with waves of new infections, lockdowns re-emerging and potential vaccines all affecting market recovery. However, one thing is certain: government measures matter. Regions that cannot put stimulus plans in place will suffer more than others. We see sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America contracting the most. Northern America, Western Europe and pockets of Asia Pacific will benefit from fiscal stimulus plans which aid recovery, particularly in the important SME sector.

Short-term disruption but long-term upside potential
In this [3] blog post I discussed the impact Covid-19 will have on IoT connections [4]. We forecast IoT connections to grow at a slower rate compared to our December 2019 forecast: in 2020, net additions will decline by 45 per cent. Due to a combination of two trends, a short-term slowdown but stronger adoption of IoT across enterprise verticals that have to adjust to the new normal, we expect 24 billion IoT connections by 2025. This is a similar figure to our December 2019 outlook. In the short term, the economic uncertainty could constrain demand and funding for IoT projects. However, every crisis leaves a legacy in terms of faster innovation and a new normal. It is reasonable to assume that Covid-19 will lead to faster adoption among companies of IoT, AI/ML and 5G to drive digital transformation. Business will have to automate their operations. The nature of working is changing all over the world: to stay in the game, businesses and individuals have to adapt. Moving forward, enterprises and governments will want to build resiliency.

Applications, platforms and services are still key
IoT is all about data, and data will power the digital transformation of many sectors of the economy. Enterprises are deploying IoT to achieve cost savings, generate new revenue and comply with regulations. As such, enterprise deployments continue to centre on applications focused primarily on operational efficiencies such as quality control and the management of supply chains, assets and fleets.

The value from IoT data is what fuels application revenue growth. IoT service providers are simplifying deployment by offering complete but also customised solutions. The more these solutions are in the field, the more data will be collected and the more likely it is that new application revenue will be generated. Welcome to the virtuous cycle of data. To enable this, players continue to transition from a product sales strategy to a recurring product-as-a-service (PaaS) revenue model. Vendors, including operators, from across the ecosystem are vying to become the one-stop shop for IoT solutions. Those that have strong credentials and offerings in cloud computing platforms and infrastructure have an advantage. According to our Enterprise in Focus Survey 2019, 21 per cent of enterprises highlight them as first-choice providers for IoT solutions. Cloud players are busy inking partnerships across the ecosystem.

Don’t bet on connectivity
Although connectivity revenue will grow over the forecast period, it will only account for 5 per cent of the total IoT revenue opportunity by 2025. Compared with our previous forecast, connectivity revenue has changed the least. The main difference between then and now is the slower realisation of the 5G opportunity. The potential uplift from 5G IoT adoption depends on how quickly Release 16 can be deployed in commercial networks. We see 5G features such as ultra-reliable, low-latency communications (URLCC) becoming commercially available in 2022.

5G also grants operators an opportunity to address certain verticals such as manufacturing [5], look out for a blog on that soon. Recent announcements suggest operators have progressed in the way they are addressing the manufacturing sector, including SMEs, as they are increasingly offering simple, out-of-the-box solutions. Our research shows [6] IoT connectivity is likely to account for the bulk of IoT revenue. However, operators have been expanding their capabilities beyond connectivity to capture a larger proportion of the overall market to offer end-to-end solutions which involve other IoT capabilities such as platforms, security and analytics.

Professional services suffer the most
This segment (comprising consulting, systems integration and managed services) will suffer a 23 per cent contraction in 2020 compared with our previous forecast, linked to a decrease in new projects but also the fact that vendors are facing pricing pressure and accommodating changes to payment terms.

Systems integration will continue to be the biggest contributor towards professional services revenue as enterprises continue to struggle with integration. Our survey shows [7] that more than half of the companies surveyed reported integration as a key challenge. IT is the most difficult area to integrate, especially across Asia Pacific where companies are struggling the most (nearly 90 per cent of companies surveyed across India and Japan, for example).

So what does it mean for the players across the IoT ecosystem?

Our Enterprise in Focus Survey 2019 shows companies prefer to buy custom products from one provider. However, the simple truth is that no single company can address the needs of an entire IoT ecosystem. M&A continues, as do partnerships to provide IoT-as-a-service offerings to target different verticals. Recent examples include a Qualcomm and Infinite partnership for smart cities, Honeywell and SAP for smart buildings, and Verizon Business and Microsoft Azure in analytics.

Many solutions have been repurposed or created to address the short-terms goals of enterprises: ensuring workers’ safety, adherence to Covid-19 regulations and continuity of business operations. IoT vendors should focus their efforts on helping businesses quickly deploy IoT solutions to address these immediate needs as well as guiding them along the path of digital transformation.

– Sylwia Kechiche – principal analyst, IoT and Enterprise, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/iot-revenue-state-of-the-market-2020
[2] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GSMAi_IoT_revenue_forecast_by_segment.jpg
[3] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/blog/intelligence-brief-covid-19-and-what-it-means-for-iot
[4] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/iot-connections-forecast-the-impact-of-covid-19
[5] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/5g-grants-operators-an-opportunity-to-address-manufacturing
[6] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/operator-revenue-in-the-enterprise-market
[7] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/iot-in-business-2020-the-enterprise-voice-on-iot-adoption

Over the past year or so, I’ve attended an increasing number of briefings and events focused on fixed wireless access (FWA). One thing always amuses me: the context-setting part that highlights how FWA is not actually a new technology or service. It’s a fair point, and only serves to remind me that I started looking at the space about 20 years ago.

I was there for LMDS in the US, for the plethora of proprietary solutions for leveraging MMDS (2.5 GHz) spectrum, and for the rise and fall of WiMAX. I believed in my overly optimistic market forecasts. Mostly, however, I believed (and still do) in the promise of using wireless technologies for fixed broadband use cases.

It was great, then, to tune into last month’s FWA Technology Forum launch [1]. The Forum brings together FWA-focused operators, manufacturers and analyst shops, with a goal of driving the industry and driving collaboration across industry players. And, if nothing else, it was an important reminder of some key market realities: FWA services play a critical role in connecting the unconnected; with 100 million users across 4G and 5G technologies, it’s no longer a niche technology; and the industry is now supported by an array of suppliers, giving operators plenty of equipment choice but potentially making those choices more difficult.

By bringing together insights from a broad set of FWA players, the Forum launch was an opportunity to gain further insight into the direction of the FWA market, helping to answer questions on the future of FWA and what we need to be thinking about if we want it to continue on a path to success.

What’s more important: 4G or 5G?
With 5G being rolled out around the world, it’s natural to think that any new interest in fixed wireless would be linked to it. The reality of FWA is more complicated.

Ultimately, to address rising capacity demand, operators will need to leverage all suitable spectrum. And, where spectrum is tied to a specific technology generation, this means leveraging 4G as well as 5G. Both come with specific advantages, ensuring that each has its place. 4G, for example, will be the logical option where 5G spectrum hasn’t been allocated, but also benefits from the infrastructure and CPE cost efficiencies that reflect its global scale and maturity – scale represented by the deployment of 401 FWA networks based on 4G (according to the Global mobile Suppliers Association, GSA). Clearly, there’s no shortage of successful 4G examples for operators to look to.

5G, meanwhile, will be an important technology for scaling FWA capacity and addressing new, high-bandwidth services thanks to the use of new spectrum bands but also technology innovations such as enhanced uplink and massive MIMO. Beyond bandwidth, however, 5G should help operators deliver differentiated services in the home. It’s a similar story to the way 5G is being positioned in the enterprise. And, while there aren’t as many 5G-based FWA networks, the fact remains that 50 per cent of 5G networks support FWA use cases (again, per the GSA). Since, like LTE, 5G represents a common technology that can support fixed and mobile services, this isn’t surprising.

What’s more important: networks or CPE?
It might seem silly to suggest that either network or CPE assets are more important in delivering FWA services. Services, after all, cannot be delivered without both. That doesn’t mean it’s not a question worth asking, or one without an answer.

Think about mobile broadband services. New generations of networks bring impressive features and capabilities – new speeds, new services, lower costs and added user scale. But device availability, features and costs always remain a gating factor on success. Fixed wireless is no different. Network infrastructure innovations help to make the business case, but CPE is critical to the business case in terms of costs (EG, device and deployment costs) and services (EG, home networking features and differentiated services). Now more than ever, as FWA looks to address multiple use cases, these service capabilities are critical.

And this is one place where the FWA Technology Forum could lend real value to the market. Experience sharing is a nice goal, and discussing technology trends is appropriate. Meanwhile, bringing CPE players into a solution catalogue, backed by integration testing and a CPE Open Lab, should help develop the FWA CPE ecosystem and get the right CPE into the hands of operators.

What’s more important: services or experiences?
I’ve heard the FWA sales pitch many times over the past few years. For their part, vendors often start by calling out an opportunity to connect the unconnected, while highlighting the value of specific solution assets: RAN re-use, CPE management tools, QoS and performance evaluation capabilities, service provision management (including coverage planning and prediction). All of these received attention in the Forum launch too.

Vendor marketing aside, however, this all points to the notion that FWA needs to be about more than connectivity or broadband services. It needs to be about in-home experiences. This is reflected in the way operators talk about themselves and the services they want to deliver. Just as importantly, we saw this reflected in the Forum’s discussion of using FWA to deliver multiple services (gaming, SME services, cloud services) and the provision of tools to manage the in-home experience (including a focus on in-home networking capabilities) versus simply delivering broadband to the home.

I don’t really recall how many FWA connections I forecasted back when I started looking at the market a couple decades ago. If I’m being honest, I don’t really want to remember – I’m sure I was way off. But with 400+ FWA networks built on 4G, and 50% of 5G networks supporting the use case, it’s clear that we are now talking about big numbers of users and connections and traffic. That’s a testament to how far the industry has come in the past few years – but a reminder that the market’s potential is far from being achieved, and that it won’t be achieved without the technology innovation and ecosystem development that makes it easier to deploy FWA and deliver compelling services with it. While it may not deliver all of this, the FWA Technology Forum launch seems like a step in the right direction.

– Peter Jarich – Head of GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2020/7/4g-5g-fwa-technology-forum

Since the Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic started spreading around the globe, most of the attention has been on two areas: health and the economy. One of the main questions over the past few months was what the global economic outlook is looking like in 2020 and beyond, and which sectors of the economy will suffer the least and the most. Some analysts were forecasting moderate growth for telecoms, while others were more conservative in their outlook, predicting a decline, in line with the global GDP.

The first results for Q2 will be published in the coming weeks and give us a great indication on how well the industry is holding up in the crisis. For a bit of clue to what we should expect to see, this is a great chance to take a look at the most recently published results, Q1 2020.

So how much of those fears or hopes have actualised in Q1 2020?
GSMA Intelligence conducted an analysis of the financial performance for 27 biggest telecom groups by revenues based on Q1 2020 reported results, which can be accessed via the latest Global Financial Benchmarking report [1]. The good news is that 17 groups out of 27 reported a year-on-year revenue growth. While the aggregated revenue for all 27 groups declined by 0.5 per cent, the decline was slower than the drop in global GDP, which Fitch Ratings states shrank by 1.7 per cent.

There are several factors regarding why that happened. First of all, group performances were largely influenced by their geographical footprints, as the spread of the virus and severity of the lockdown has varied by region. Secondly, telecom operators are non-cyclical companies, meaning their performance is less volatile in times of recession, due to an ongoing demand in the essential service they provide; connectivity. It is important to mention as well that while Covid-19 was among the factors affecting the financial performance Q1, it was not the only factor, and mainly had an indirect link to financial performance via the economic impact.

The financial results of the first quarter in 2020 demonstrate that (see chart, below, click to enlarge).

While most telecom operators suffered from reduced non-recurring revenue, as the lockdown restrictions meant they had to close down most of their retail outlets, service revenue was up due to an increase in data usage, both on the fixed and mobile side, due to a switch to homeworking an increase in usage of online services for entertainment.

[2]

In our latest Global Financial Benchmarking report we selected three groups with presence in South America, MENA and Africa to deep dive into their financial performance and key strategic changes and assess the regional impact of Covid-19. Looking at the regional differences, Telefonica, which has a vast footprint in South America, reported a negative effect of Covid 19 on its operations in Q1, with revenues declining 5 per cent, impacting profitability. Enterprise clients affected by the pandemic, and declines in prepaid, roaming and handset revenues were the main contributing factors.

Etisalat, which is mainly present in MENA, saw 1 per cent growth in revenue, boosted by the businesses in Egypt and Chad. However, growth slowed compared to the 2.4 per cent rise recorded in Q4 2019, due to the impact of Covid-19 on domestic operations.

And MTN, operating in Africa, reported limited impact from Covid-19 on its performance for Q1, as the lockdown measures across most of its footprint were not introduced until the last week of the quarter. In April 2020, however, the pandemic proved a catalyst for an increase in data traffic across MTN’s footprint, up 115 per cent compared with April 2019, with the highest increases in Nigeria and Ghana.

Regarding profitability, the aggregated EBITDA margin of the 27 analysed groups declined only slightly, from 34 per cent in Q1 2019 to 33.7 per cent in Q1 2020, with 20 groups reporting EBITDA margin of more than 30 per cent. On the capital expenditure side, as the 2020 budgets set in 2019 did not foresee the global pandemic, groups continued with 5G rollouts and 4G upgrades in Q1 and spent $4 billion more in the quarter than Q1 2019.

Outlook
Despite these reassuring results, it is worth understanding that Q2 may look less positive. This is due to majority of lockdowns being introduced at the end of March, therefore mainly affecting second quarter results. At the same time the worsening economic situation across the world means an increase in unemployment, which will have a negative impact on telecom revenues, particularly in developing markets with limited fixed broadband coverage and where the majority of subscribers are on prepaid tariff plans.

The main challenge in upcoming months therefore will be managing the bad debt and balancing the liquidity. On the capex side, devaluation of local currency against the US dollar in developing markets may result in an investment slow down. Other factors that may decrease capex are supply chain disruptions and new site installation limitations due to lockdown restrictions, especially in case of a second wave of Covid-19.

In terms of capex drivers, capacity improvements may lead to an increase in the infrastructure spend. However, most of the 27 groups report their networks are coping with the increased data traffic and since most countries have already seen the transition to homeworking, it is unlikely the Q1  rate of growth in data traffic will continue to increase across the remainder of 2020.

– Alla Shabelnikova – senior financial analyst/forecaster, GSMA Intelligence

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members.

[1] https://data.gsmaintelligence.com/research/research/research-2020/global-financial-benchmarking-q1-2020
[2] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GSMAi_majoroperator_q1_comparison.jpg